Cote D’ivoire Needs A Chocolate Revolution

U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, gave a prophetic advice to Middle East leaders gathered in Qatar for the Forum of the Future on January 12 that their regimes should adapt or die. Reform or deform. A few days later, Ben Ali fell and, and scents from the Jasmine Revolution filling the air of Egypt, with Hosni Mubarak, misreading the mood and sacking his government and promising to step down at a future date when the demand of the masses are simply: ‘go and go now!’. What is happening in the two Arab nations has been compared to the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia in 1989 and its domino effect in shredding to pieces the iron curtain, which led to the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe and the subsequent dominance of multiparty democracy in both Europe and Africa. But, what has been the nature of democracy in Africa and much of the former communist bloc? The street protests in Tunisia and Egypt have exposed something of which other African regimes should take note: the farcical democracy that has defined governance on our continent, particularly, since the 1990s. Ramifications must not be limited to the Arab world. It must extend to democratic mirages further down the Sahara. Let it flow down the Nile, through the Niger, the mouth of Bandama, meandering across the Volta, up and down the Limpopo, the Kerio, the estuaries of the Congo, the Shangani, the Zambesi, the Orange, and bursting the banks of democratic deficits that keep Africans thirsty for accountability and real value for votes. This year alone, there are 26 scheduled elections in Africa; 19 of them presidential. How the Cote d’Ivoire crisis is resolved will send a strong signal – either to the people or to intransigent autocrats in false democratic rugs – about the future course of democracy on our continent. Thus, the situation in Cote d’Ivoire is bigger than its territorial significance to the Ivorian people. The critical point which appears to be lost on Africans from the crisis in Tunisia and Egypt is what it exposes about democracy in Africa. Gelastic and freaky in both its intrinsic and extrinsic value. For example, last November-December, Egypt held parliamentary elections that were boycotted by the Muslim Brotherhood because it was seen as a big sham. Yet, the Americans were okay with it, apparently, because it kept the ‘extremists’ at bay, and showed that their man, Mubarak, was still in control. It is this kind of farcical accommodation of de facto dictatorship that strengthens the very groups and sentiments which the West seeks to keep out of the governance process. It wins so-called extremists public sympathy. Egypt was, in any event, due to hold a presidential election this year. The protests on the streets of Cairo and Alexandra today tell us of how low the level of confidence that the people have in the system of ‘democracy’ they have been forced to endure all this while. In Tunisia, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali was ruling with a victory of 89.62 percent of the vote. The implausibility of that margin of victory has been confirmed by the nature of his ‘premature’ demise. The ouster of Tunisian de facto dictator Ben Ali and the imminent ouster of his colleague Mubarak both hold a lesson for authoritarian regimes and pseudo democratic regimes all over Africa and the Middle East. Not even Gbagbo can keep a lid on this populous pressure cooker – once it starts to boil… “If leaders don't offer a positive vision and give young people meaningful ways to contribute, others will fill the vacuum. Extremist elements, terrorist groups and others who prey on desperation and poverty are already out there, appealing for allegiance and competing for influence,” Mrs Clinton said in Qatar. How does this apply to Laurent Gbagbo and the Ivorian crisis? If a solution is not found quickly enough for Cote d’Ivoire the rebels would strike and the consequences could be worse than the application of a surgical legitimate force by international forces. Already, more people may have been killed in Cote d’Ivoire than in the two North African countries put together; 260 people are reported dead next door. According to the UN, refugees fleeing to neighbouring Liberia could top 100,000 by the end of April. Gbagbo loyalist forces are alleged to be attacking civilians and UN convoys in Abidjan, as well as ethnic strife in the west of the country, displacing tens of thousands of people, with 32,000 fleeing to Liberia as of the end of last week, according to a UN report. In Addis Ababa earlier this week, the UN Secretary General stressed the need for an early solution to the impasse consistent with the will of the Ivorian people as expressed in the November presidential run-off election, which Alassan Ouattara won by a margin of more than 8 percentage points. Earlier in December, I was interviewed by some local radio stations, including Sky and Adom, where I suggested a combination of protests-strikes and a global ban on the purchase of Ivorian cocoa as some of the measures to be applied against Gbagbo. Ouattara has been calling for just that and, the economic squeeze, at least, appears to be biting. The world can take a firmer decision on cocoa exports to gradually but speedily deny Gbagbo the oxygen of remuneration for the institutions that keep his intransigence fuelled. But, the people of Cote d’Ivoire should also be proactive in demonstrating their protests publicly like we have seen further north. This current situation of no war, no peace, no government is too dangerous and may end up costing more lives than a short, sharp, shock of public revolt. I call it a Chocolate Revolution. La Cote d’Ivoire needs it. Africa needs it. The Ivorians should not fail us. The UN, AU and ECOWAS can play their part by increasing the number of peace-keepers/makers in the country to enhance the public sense of security. Let the international peacekeepers offer the striking masses protection and let us see how many pro-Gbagbo civilians will come out with a counter demonstration. How I pray that the Molotovs of Mubarak’s violent counter demonstration burn him out of office. For this strategy of his to succeed would be highly counterproductive for Africa; only useful to the Gbagbos of a discredited status quo. Chocolate Revolution it must be. The author is the Executive Director of the Danquah Institute, a policy think tank. gabby@danquahinstitute.org